Identity and inequality misperceptions, demographic determinants and efficacy of corrective measures

By conducting two waves of large-scale surveys in the United Kingdom and Germany, we investigate the determinants of identity and inequality misperceptions. We first show that people substantially overestimate the share of immigrants, Muslims, people under the poverty line, and the income share of the richest. Moreover, women, lower-income, and lower-educated respondents generally have higher misperceptions. Only income share misperceptions are associated more with people who place themselves on the left of the political spectrum. In contrast, the other three misperceptions are more prevalent among those who place themselves to the right. We then attempt to correct misperceptions by conducting a classic controlled experiment. Specifically, we randomly assign respondents into a treatment group informed about their initial misperceptions and a control group left uninformed. Our results indicate that information treatments had some corrective effects on misperceptions in Germany but were ineffective in the United Kingdom. Moreover, information treatments in Germany were more effective for men, centrists, and highly educated respondents. There is also no evidence of spill-over effects: correcting one misperception does not have corrective effects for the other misperceptions.

Q39 Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 to what extent you think the United Kingdom has become a worse or a better place to live by people coming to live here from other countries (0 = Worse place to live; 10 = Better place to live).Q40 Typically, how often do you access news?By news we mean national, international, regional/local news and other topical events accessed via radio, TV, newspaper or online.Several times a day / Once a day / Several times a week / Once a week / Several times a month / Once a month / Less often than once a month / Whenever I come across by coincidence / Almost never / Never Thinking about your news habits, please indicate on a scale of 0-10 how often do you. . .(0 = Never; 10 = Always).Q41 Read any newspapers in print?Q42 Listen to news on the radio?Q43 Watch television news?Q44 Get news from a social media site (such as Facebook, Twitter, or Snapchat)?Q45 Get news from a news website or app?Q46 Which, if any, of the following sources of information do you use to keep up with political issues?Please select all that apply.Friends, relatives or colleagues / National printed newspapers and/or their online sites/apps / Radio broadcasters and/or online sites/apps / TV broadcasters and/or online sites/apps / Politically focused magazines and/or online sites/apps / Political parties and/or their newsletters or online sites / Online specialist sites or political blogs / Social media such as Facebook and Twitter / Don't know / None of these Q47 Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 how much trust and confidence you have in the mass media -such as newspapers, TV and radio -when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately and fairly (0 = None at all; 10 = A great deal).Q48 Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 how much trust and confidence you have in the social media -such as Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTubewhen it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately and fairly (0 = None at all; 10 = A great deal).Q49 Please indicate below whether you get news about politics and current affairs regularly from each of the following sources.For each item, please indicate on a scale of 0-10 if it is something you do regularly (0 = Never; 10 = Always).The Guardian / The Sunday Times / The Times / Daily Mail / The Independent / The Sun / Channel 4 / BBC / ITV / Film 4 Q50 Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 how much trust and confidence you have in the following sources when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately and fairly (0 = None at all; 10 = A great deal).The Guardian / The Sunday Times / The Times / Daily Mail / The Independent / The Sun / Channel 4 / BBC / ITV / Film 4 Q51 On a typical day, about how much time do you spend using the internet on a computer, tablet, smartphone or other device, whether for work or personal use?Please give your answer in hours and minutes.Q52 Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 how often you come across news stories about politics online that you think are not fully accurate (0 = Never; 10 = Always).Q53 Have you ever shared a political news story online that you later found out was made up?Yes / No / No answer Q54 Have you ever shared a political news story online that you thought at the time was made up?Yes / No / No answer As you may have heard, there have recently been some instances of so called "fake news stories" circulating widely online.Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 how much responsibility each of the following has in trying to prevent made up stories from gaining attention (0 = No responsibility at all; 10 = A great deal of responsibility).Q55 Members of the public Q56 The government, politicians, and elected officials Q57 Social networking sites like Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp and search sites like Google Q58 Media Q59 Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 how confident you are in your own ability to recognize news that is made up (0 = Not at all confident; 10 = Very confident).Q60 Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 how much you think these kinds of news stories leave people confused about the basic facts of current issues and events (0 = Not at all; 10 = A great deal).
Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 whether you agree or disagree with the following statements (0 = Completely disagree; 10 = Completely agree).Q61 There is too much moral decay today.Q62 The sense of belonging together that we used to have is irrevocably lost.Q63 Parents no longer adequately educate their children.Q64 People don't care for each other any more.Q65 The United Kingdom will face a situation of ever-increasing job insecurity.Q66 Even more enterprises will move to low-wage countries, threatening employment in the United Kingdom.Q67 In order to face the competition of other countries we will have to dismantle our welfare state.Q68 Multinational enterprises will become increasingly powerful, small enterprises are bound to suffer.Q69 Opening the European frontiers means that our employers will prefer the low-cost workers from poorer countries to our own workers.Q70 In the future we will become even less open and tolerant with regard to people from other cultures.Q71 The relationship between Christians and Muslims is bound to become violent in the future.Q72 The relationship between Christians and Jews is bound to become violent in the future.Q73 You can generally trust the people who run our government to do what is right.Q74 For the next question, please consider globalization as the increased trade between countries in goods, services, and investments.Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 whether you think globalization has had a negative or a positive effect on each of the following (0 = Completely negative effect; 10 = Completely positive effect) British factory workers / Multinational corporations based in the United Kingdom / You and your immediate family / The British economy Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 whether you agree or disagree with the following statements (0 = Completely disagree; 10 = Completely agree).Q75 It is important to live in secure and safe surroundings.Q76 People should follow rules at all times, even when no-one is watching.Q77 It is important that the government is strong and ensures safety against all threats.Q78 It is important to follow traditions and customs handed down by religion or family.
In the following questions, we refer to legal immigrants as people who were not born in the United Kingdom and legally moved here at a certain point of their life.We are NOT considering irregular migration.

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Q79 Think about all of the currently living in the United Kingdom.Out of every 100 people in the United Kingdom, how many are born in another country?Q80 Fill in the boxes below to indicate how many out of every 100 people in the United Kingdom you think practice each religion.Christianity / Islam / Buddhism / Hinduism / Other Religions/Atheist/No religious affiliation Q81 Out of every 100 people, who are between 20 and 64 years old, in the United Kingdom how many are currently unemployed?By unemployed we mean people who are currently not working but searching for a job (and maybe unable to find one).Now let's compare this to the number of unemployed among foreign-born people.Out of every 100 foreign-born people how many do you think are currently unemployed?Q82 The poverty line is the estimated minimum level of income needed to secure the necessities of life.Out of every 100 adult people born in the United Kingdom, how many live below the poverty line?Let's compare this to poverty among legal immigrants.Out of every 100 legal immigrants in the United Kingdom today, how many do you think live below the poverty line?Q83 The International Organization for Migration (IOM) defines irregular migration as "movement that takes place outside the regulatory norms of the sending, transit and receiving country".A migrant in an irregular situation may fall within one or more of the following circumstances: He or she may enter the country irregularly; he or she may reside in the country irregularly; he or she may be employed in the country irregularly.Most crimes in the UK are committed by foreigners.Q88 What percentage of the prison population in the United Kingdom are foreign national prisoners?Q89 What do you think is the income share of the poorest 20% of all people living in the United Kingdom?Q90 What do you think is the income share of the richest 10% of all people living in the United Kingdom?Q91 How large is the share of taxes and social contributions in percentage of GDP in the United Kingdom?Q92 According to the share of taxes and social contributions as a percentage of GDP, in which position do you think the United Kingdom is among the 28 Union European countries?Notice that a higher position in the list implies a larger share.Q93 Please consider corruption in a broad sense, including offering, giving, requesting and accepting bribes or kickbacks, valuable gifts and important favors, as well as any abuse of power for private gain.Transparency International is the leading global civil organization on the fight against corruption.Each year they elaborate a Corruption Perceptions Index which ranks 180 countries and territories by their perceived levels of public sector corruption according to experts and business people.In which position do you think the United Kingdom is among the 28 Union European countries?Q94 There are people who tend to be towards the top of our society and people who tend to be towards the bottom.Below is a scale that runs from top to bottom.On a scale of 1-10 Where you would put yourself (1 = Bottom of our society; 10 = Top of our society).
Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 to what extent you agree with the following statements (0 = Completely disagree; 10 = Completely agree).Q95 I experience a general sense of emptiness.Q96 There are many people I can trust completely.Q97 I miss having people around me. Q98 I often feel rejected.Q99 I have enough opportunities to advance in life Q100 I know exactly where I feel at home and where I belong.

Wave 2
New questions are marked with "N" after the number, the information treatment is marked with "T" after the number Q1 Were you born in the United Kingdom?Yes / No Q2 What is your gender?Male / Female / Non-Binary Q3 What is your age?Q3-N How long have you lived in your current city?(years) Q4 What is your gross weekly household income?Less than £400 / £400-£600 / £600-£1.000/ More than £1.000Q5 Please indicate your marital status.Single / Couple, Married / Separated or Divorced / Widowed Q6 How many children do you have?I do not have children / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / More than 5 Q7 Which category best describes your highest level of education?Compulsory Education / High School / University (but not finished) / Bachelor Degree / Master Degree / Doctoral Degree Q7-T1 In the last survey, you estimated population share of immigrants as ....In 2019, population share of immigrants in the UK was 14%.Q7-T2 In the last survey, you estimated income share of the richest 10% as ....In 2019, income share of the richest 10% in the UK was 26%.
Q8 Which of these descriptions best describes your situation?Please select ONLY one.In paid work / In education / Self employed / Unemployed and actively looking for a job / Unemployed, wanting a job but not actively looking for a job / Permanently sick or disabled / Retired / In community or military service / Doing housework, looking after children or other persons / Refusal/Don't know Q9 Have you ever had a paid job?Yes / No / Refusal/Don't know Q10 In what year were you last in a paid job?Write in year / Refusal/Don't know Q11 In your main job are/were you. . .Please select ONLY one.An employee / Self-employed / Working for your own family's business / Refusal/Don't know Q12 How many employees (if any) do/did you have?Write in the number of employees / Refusal/Don't know Q92 According to the share of taxes and social contributions as a percentage of GDP, in which position do you think the United Kingdom is among the 27 European Union countries and the UK (28 countries in total)?Notice that a higher position in the list implies a larger share.
For the next questions, please consider corruption in a broad sense, including offering, giving, requesting and accepting bribes or kickbacks, valuable gifts and important favors, as well as any abuse of power for private gain.Q93 Transparency International is the leading global civil organization on the fight against corruption.Each year they elaborate a Corruption Perceptions Index which ranks 180 countries and territories by their perceived levels of public sector corruption according to experts and business people.In which position do you think the United Kingdom is among the 27 European Union countries and the UK (28 countries in total)?Q94 There are people who tend to be towards the top of our society and people who tend to be towards the bottom.On a scale of 0-10 Where you would put yourself (0 = Bottom of our society; 10 = Top of our society).
Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 to what extent you agree with the following statements (0 = Completely disagree; 10 = Completely agree).Q95 I experience a general sense of emptiness.Q96 There are many people I can trust completely.Q97 I miss having people around me. Q98 I often feel rejected.Q99 I have enough opportunities to advance in life.Q100 I know exactly where I feel at home and where I belong.

Supplement: Definitions and Data Sources of Actual Statistics
To compare the perceptions of our respondents with actual statistics, we used the following definitions and data sources.

Foreign Born
For the question "Out of every 100 people in [country], how many are born in another country?",we used the share of foreign-born in the entire population.Data are taken from Eurostat, Population and Migration Statistics, code: migr pop3ctb.We employed the most recent data available at the time of the survey, which were the population figures for 2018.The share of foreign born amounts to 17% in Germany and 14% in the UK.

Muslim Population
The respondents' estimate for the Muslim share was captured by the question "How many out of every 100 people in [country] you think practice each religion."There is no uniform database to cover the actual share of people practicing Islam.In Germany, the share of the Muslim population is 5.1%; the estimate refers to 2018 and is taken from Forschungsgruppe Weltanschauungen in Deutschland (https://fowid.de/meldung/religionszugehoerigkeiten-2018).For the UK, we relied on the CIA World Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/); the most recent estimate is from 2011 with a value of 4.4%.

Poverty
Respondents were asked "The poverty line is the estimated minimum level of income needed to secure the necessities of life.Out of every 100 adult people born in [country], how many live below the poverty line?".Eurostat sets this threshold of being at risk of poverty at 60% of median equivalised income after social transfers.We used the poverty rate of the population aged 18 and over from Eurostat (Quality of life, code: ilc li31).In March 2020, the most recent data were available for the years 2018 (Germany) and 2017 (UK).The poverty rates were 16% in Germany and 16% in the UK.

Income Share of the Top Decile
We elicited the respondents' estimates for the income share of the top 10% earners by asking: "What do you think is the income share of the richest 10% of all people living in [country]?"We contrast these estimates with data from Eurostat (Quality of life, code: ilc di01), which provides the distribution of incomes by quantiles.The income shares for 2018 (available in March 2020) were 26% in Germany and the UK.
Think about the evolution of the irregular migration flows in Europe in the last 3 years.It has increased over time / It has decreased over time / It has kept constant over time / Don´t know Q84 Think about the evolution of detections of illegal border crossing at the EU's external borders in the last 3 years.It has increased over time / It has decreased over time / It has kept constant over time / Don´t know Q85 How many Islamist terrorists do you think have been arrested in the United Kingdom in 2018?Q86 How many people do you think have been killed during terror attacks committed by Islamist terrorists in the United Kingdom in the last 5 years?Q87 Please indicate on a scale of 0-10 whether you agree or disagree with the following statement (0 = Completely disagree; 10 = Completely agree):